Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Another prediction

While Jace does great civic service...thanks, Jace!...I cannot get out of the dreaded "teacher inservice day" (aka "professional development", or as we educators frequently refer, a waste of our time. Thank god for "the Google").

My predictions (optimism included!):
Obama: 348 electoral votes, 51% of popular vote
McLame: 190 electoral votes, 47% of popular vote

Democrats in the Senate: 57 (plus 2 independents)
Republicans in the Senate: 41

Democrats in the House: 275
Republicans in the House: 160

Indiana's polls begin closing at 6pm, but time zone issues keep it from being a uniform closing statewide. If Indiana can't be called for McCain fairly early, look for a Democratic landslide. If Obama wins Indiana, the election could be a complete blowout, an epic fail for the Republicans.

Virginia closes at 7pm, as do Georgia and Florida. GA and FL are tossups, but VA is leaning Democrat. A sweep of these and it is likely over, and a long night for the Goopers.

Ohio and North Carolina close at 7:30. If these two go Dem in addition to VA, FL and possibly GA, it's going to be a bloodbath. The reason I say that is the number of House races that are competitive this year. Relatively early calls in these states for Obama could mean coattails of great length...and a lot of GOP soul-searching on Nov. 5.

Pennsylvania and Missouri close at 8pm. PA should go Dem. MO, on the other hand could get interesting. A win in MO means Obama is probably the next president, because even if he's only holding Kerry states by that point, he will just need 7 electoral votes to seal the deal, and Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa will close at 9, 9 and 10pm respectively. Obama leads in each.

Other stuff to watch: Prop. 8 in California (anti gay marriage), and gay marriage issues in FL and AZ. There's a very severe anti-choice law on the ballot in SD, and a "right-to-work" issue in CO (read: anti-union).

Of course, this is an American election, and we all know what a clusterf**k these can become. So I wouldn't put down money on anything. Things look good for our side going in.

Have fun poll-watching, Jace. I'll be glued to the TV all night

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